Spring Statement 2026: A Refreshingly Subdued Affair
After last November’s tax-raising Autumn Budget, yesterday’s Spring Statement was a refreshingly subdued affair. The Chancellor chose to give businesses an economic update rather than announce new flagship policies or major tax rises.
Ms Reeves outlined updated forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR): growth is expected to be 1.1% in 2026; 1.6% in 2027 and 2028; and 1.5% in 2029 and 2030. Borrowing is down by nearly £18 billion compared to Autumn 2025 and headroom against the stability rule has increased to almost £24 billion.
The Spring Statement was largely an exercise in reassurance, with the Chancellor reiterating the government’s commitment to fostering growth through stability, aiming to provide businesses with more immediate and long-term economic certainty.
Risks on the Horizon
Despite this cautious optimism, significant risks remain. Weak productivity growth, a softening labour market, and continued fiscal consolidation are compounded by trade uncertainties and the potential for prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Importantly, the OBR’s forecasts were finalised before the recent escalation in global tensions. They assumed gas prices of 78p per therm, whereas current market prices are roughly 120% higher - the highest in three years - raising the likelihood of increased inflation and higher costs for businesses.
Energy and Policy Implications
On energy, there were no announcements of new taxes, carbon pricing adjustments, or updates to support schemes or net zero frameworks. Businesses will continue to face existing energy costs and compliance obligations, including significant rises to non-commodity costs from April.
Businesses also face a wave of policy changes coming into effect next month as measures from the Autumn Budget are implemented. These include rising minimum wages, adjustments to business rates, and updates to regulatory requirements.
Final Thoughts
While the Chancellor made no substantive policy or tax announcements yesterday, it is our opinion that firms are still looking for clear signals that the government is ready to grasp the nettle and tackle the high cost of doing business in the UK – including those associated with energy.
With global conflict outpacing and undermining the OBR’s economic data, the current projections feel fragile, and it would have been interesting to evaluate revised OBR projections in light of the wider macro-economic factors at play today.
About Big Energy Group
Big Energy Group is a privately held, British-owned energy brokerage with an established track record of helping clients successfully navigate the energy market. The company has offices in Harrogate and the Tees Valley and serves more than 500 businesses across the UK. For more information, please visit bigenergygroup.co.uk.
